How to address the uncertainty complexity: a new method for the contingency reserve calculation

In our study, we examine in depth the role of Contingency Re-serve and methods for its calculation in the context of project costs estimation. Following the definition of PMI (2017), the Contingency Reserve is the budget within the cost baseline allocated for identified risks, which were accepted and for which the project manager has allocated a certain amount, in order to cover expenses for reactive solu-tions when project is in progress. Our final objective is to provide a new method for the estimation of Contingency Reserve that will allow project managers to be more efficient in allocating the budget amount dedicated to project uncertainties, avoiding the variations showed above. This method will be easy to use because based on the classic moving average statistical method.